The Phillies managed to trade away all of their veteran rentals for young prospects (most of whom do not need to occupy a roster spot), an increase to their ability to spend on international talent, and an intriguing left handed outfielder who may not have been given a fair chance to succeed in Baltimore. All things considered, it's been a successful trade deadline for Matt Klentak.
However, the team now finds itself in strange territory. We have a number of guys who give you just enough production to keep them from being released, but not enough that they have significant trade value. We also have a number of prospects who are either ready or very close to being ready who are blocked by members of the 25 man roster who are, at best, league average. We also a glut of young talent in the outfield at all levels, and not enough spots on the 40 man roster to keep them all.
While I'm very patient with this rebuilding process, we're coming very close to the line where change is unavoidable, and the safe road isn't always the wisest choice. Here are the choices I would make in this winter to continue the rebuilding process into the 2018 season.
Mike Moustakas - 3B - Kansas City Royals
Mike is the right person who is available at the right time. He's a left handed bat with above average defense and untapped potential. He's had a few rough breaks, but he seems to have turned the corner in 2017 and developed into the home run threat that Kansas City has always hoped he would be. He isn't without flaws, but I'd gamble that his age 29 - 34 seasons will significantly outperform Maikel Franco at age 25 - 30, and I would much prefer his contract to the massive overpayment that the bat chucking headcase Manny Machado will receive after next season.
As important as his addition would be to the lineup, the addition of Moustakas would also be a signal to other free agents and trade targets that the time is now for the Phillies, and that this is a team that is ready to compete for a title.
Either Chris Tillman or Clay Buchholz - RHP
Quick - who is the oldest active pitcher on the Phillies 40 man roster? That would be Luis GarcÃa at the ripe old age of 30. If the price is right, I would add Chris Tillman to the over 30 club in Philadelphia. Tillman has had a very rough season, but the Phillies likely wouldn't be the only team willing to take a chance that he can regain his form. If that doesn't happen, I'd be open to seeing Buchholz return on a team-friendly, short-term deal for the back end of the rotation. Give him the chance to rebuild some of his value while paying us back for 2017.
The Phillies need to add at least two arms who have a proven track record as starters at the major league level, and I'd prefer they didn't overpay for a guy like
Yu Darvish,
Jake Arrieta or
Johnny Cueto when they can wait a year and go hard after
Dallas Keuchel or
Clayton Kershaw, or maybe
Cole Hamels to finish out his career as it began. I'd be very happy if they added one of either Chatwood, Cahill or Estrada.
Our rotation for 2018 with no outside addition would be Nola, Eickoff, Velasquez, Pivetta and... Leiter? Elfin? Lively? You tell me. Even if you assume everyone stays healthy, this is not an imposing rotation.
The Phillies have developed their ace with Aaron Nola. We have a middle-of-the-rotation arm in Eickoff, who still has potential to succeed in a major league rotation. Past that, we have a revolving door of arms who belong either in the bullpen or in Lehigh Valley.
Velasquez is an optical illusion. He dominates sub .500 teams, but gets lit against every team who could be mistaken as a contender. It's like a flashback to the days when the Phillies still hoped that Ryan Madson could be a #2 in the rotation. He has the makings of a lights-out closer, but his presence in the rotation is not unlike Tommy Joseph at 1B - he gives you just enough hope to overlook all of the evidence that shows that he's not a good fit. Beginning to groom Velasquez as a closer eliminates a frustrating hole in the rotation while internally addressing a key need at the major league level, and based on his post-game interviews, I think Velasques himself may be happier and more productive.
As for the rest of the youth corps, Spring Training 2018 should be an audition for Pivetta, Leiter, Elfin, Morgan, Lively, Thompson, Eshelman and Leibrandt to determine who lands at the back of the rotation, who gets slotted for the bullpen, and who pitches for the Iron Pigs to come up and fill in when needed. We can't fill out a rotation with three of these guys and hope to contend, in 2018 or in the years that follow.
Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph and Cameron Rupp
The Phillies front office has a history of being the last ones to recognize when the time has come to move on. That time has come for our starting catcher and corner infielders.
I'm not quite as negative on Franco as you'll see from many other Phillies blogs. He's not a lost cause, and I'm sure that more than a few teams would be willing to trade for him in exchange for another change-of-scenery candidate. Bottom line is that he's been given the opportunity to succeed, and the Phillies can't afford to sit around waiting for Franco to put it all together. Rebuilding means that we actually have to build, and 3B is an area where better options are available, even if the Phillies do miss out on Moustakas.
Tommy Joseph is frustrating to have on the roster. He's just barely good enough to keep the team from benching his, and just bad enough to drive you crazy to watch Rhys Hoskins break the Iron Pigs single season HR record while Joseph blocks his path. In a perfect world, the Phillies would have traded him to the Yankees or to another contender in need of a temporary replacement at 1B, but the fact that no other teams want him tell you all you need to know about Joseph. If Mackanin's loyalty to his players won't allow for Joseph to occupy the Brock Stassi spot on the bench, Joseph needs to be packaged in a trade or just given his release. Again, rebuilding means that you have to build. If they want to stand pat, they're standing pat as a 100 loss team. That is unacceptable.
While Jorge Alfaro hasn't been as red hot as Hoskins in 2017, it's time to see what he can do with an extended stay at the major league level. Rupp is not without value, but frankly, he hasn't done anything to convince me that he should be starting over Knapp, let alone blocking a prospect. Time to move on.
Aaron Altherr, Roman Quinn and Dylan Cozens - OF
The discussion I've read online about Odubel Herrera and Aaron Altherr are puzzling. While he lacks maturity and hits for less power, Odubel has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball since June while Altherr has struggled to stay healthy. I wouldn't push him out of town just to get rid of him, but if the Marlins demand him to be included as part of a package for Stanton and Yelich, I wouldn't hesitate for a moment. Likewise for a front-line starter.
Roman Quinn fits in the same category for me. He's a dynamic young talent who generates as much news for his various stints on the DL as he does for his speed. If the question is whether to protect Tocci or Quinn, I'm keeping Tocci. If Quinn can be packaged in a deal for major league talent, he's more than expendable.
As for Cozens, I don't think his value will be any higher than it is right now, and with his strikeouts at the International League, I don't think his bat will translate to major league success. He has tremendous power, but I see a 2014 - 2016 Ryan Howard. Even if we added no one in our OF from trade or free agency, we have more internal OF options than we can realistically put on the field. If a team is intrigued by his power and willing to send a reliable pitcher with years of team control in exchange for him, you'd be foolish not to make that trade.
Galvis and Hernandez in 2018.
Crawford and Kingery when the time is right.
There seems to be a huge point of contention between fans regarding Freddy Galvis and J.P. Crawford. Some fans think Galvis is the future and Crawford should be dealt. Others think that this is ridiculous, that Galvis is overrated and that Crawford has superstar potential.
First of all, this is not at all the same situation as Tommy Joseph blocking Rhys Hoskins. While Galvis is league average at the plate, he's one of the best defensive shortstops in all of baseball, and that's a pretty valuable thing to have behind a young and inexperienced rotation. Also, Hoskins is two years older than Crawford and has a longer track record of success at the Triple A level. Finally, Galvis will be a free agent at the end of 2018, so unlike Tommy Joseph, this is a problem that will solve itself. Either Crawford will dominate with the Iron Pigs in 2018 and earn his spot in Philadelphia, or he'll regress, at which point the team has an opportunity to evaluate whether or not they want to push Galvis out of town before it's too late.
If nothing else, Galvis buys the Phillies an extra year of control of J.P. Crawford in his prime while giving the Phillies the best defense at shortstop of any team in Major League Baseball. Why wouldn't the Phillies take advantage of the fortunate position they find themselves in?
Similar situation with Cesar Hernandez and Scott Kingery. Hernandez is a solid major league 2B. Kingery has been on fire all year, but there's no reason to rush him to the major leagues while Hernandez is here. From a roster management standpoint, it makes sense to stagger the service time of your top prospects so that they don't hit arbitration and free agency at the same time, and it's not as if we don't have a capable infield until they're ready.
So, if it were up to me, the Phillies would look like this on Opening Day 2018:
So, I'm dreaming that the Marlins would be willing to dump Stanton's contract and that they'd take a reasonable return of Cozens, Quinn, Franco and/or Joseph and, assuming he isn't traded, I'm banking on Altherr getting plenty of playing time to give Stanton and Williams some rest, and to fill in for the multiple times throughout the year that Odubel gets benched.
Does this team contend for a World Series? Maybe, maybe not. However, it is a team that can certainly contend for a playoff spot, and it can sell itself to the free agent class of 2018 - 2019 as a team that they can win with.
